More on the
power load process
The lower prediction error
is accomplished by using multiple models representing the
power load process on different times. The process dynamics
varies during the day, as does the process static gain from
temperature [centigrade Celsius] to power load [MW]:
The shape of the average daily
power load curve has a seasonal dependence. This is shown
by the following graph, having one curve plotted for each
month:
The hourly correlation from temperature
to power load is varying during the 24 hours of the day. On
the average there is a delay of 2 - 3 hours from temperature
to power load. From the right figure (showing correlation
as a function of delay and time of day) it is
evident that the correlation has the largest magnitude in
the early morning hours.
